The oil is emerging as one of the star assets to invest this year. The rise in prices of this raw material seems to be very far from having peaked and more and more large investors are betting that its profitability will be higher than that of bitcoin in 2022.
Oil’s recent eight-year highs could be just the beginning of what lies ahead if the forecasts of the strong hands of the market are met. So much is the confidence in the bullish continuity of ‘black gold’ that 31% of investment managers around the world consider that will be the most profitable asset throughout this year.
This is revealed by the latest edition of the Global Survey of Fund Managers. This survey published this week and prepared by Bank of America is considered one of the best thermometers of investor sentiment for the strong hands of the market. In it, oil is placed as Managers’ second favorite asset to come out ahead in 2022.
Only the pop up bags they are placed above, as a preferred bet for 40% of the consulted managers. However, the truth is that while oil breaks into the rankingthese expanding markets had already been gaining the trust of the most experienced investors for months.
This vote of confidence in emerging market equities makes sense given the annual strategies presented in recent weeks by several large firms in the industry. However, not as many houses were pointing to energy commodities as the leading bet given the uncertainty that still reigns over the solvency of the economic recovery now that central banks seem ready to start withdrawing their massive stimulus.
Just a few weeks of this exercise have been enough for the ‘black gold’ has won the support of the bulk of the investment community. In this case, the latest forecasts from several investment houses consider it more than likely that Brent oil -the benchmark in Europe- end the year above 100 dollars per barrel.
Achieving this level would represent an advance of more than 7% from the current price of North Sea oil, which It already adds a comeback of 20% since the beginning of the year. In addition, the fact that each barrel was paid for with a note with the face of Benjamin Franklin would mean the conquest of maximums not seen since 2014.
The managers have highlighted in their latest outlook presentations that, although one of the objectives of the economic recovery is promote the production and consumption of renewable energies, at the moment there is no other option than to continue going through fossil fuels. Especially, for a crude oil whose supply remains quite limited in the face of the jerks in world demand for barrels.
Only him return of iranian oil to international markets could entail an expansion of supply that translates into a softening of prices for this precious raw material. And it is that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) have consistently fallen short of their production targets month after month.
Withdrawal in bitcoin
With all this, there are many more managers who bet on oil than on bitcoin, which is now only indicated as the star asset for this year by 5% of those surveyed by the US investment bank. And that since its maximum of 66,000 dollars last November accumulates a decline of 33%.
According to the global survey, the percentage of investment professionals pointing towards cryptocurrency queen as the big winner for this year barely exceeds by two points those who opt for the Prayed. In addition, it is a very wide distance from those who point to investing in Wall Street -represented by the S&P 500 index- as the best option for this exercise, since they are 15% of those surveyed.
As if the evidence for how the perception of managers has recently changed towards bitcoin and oil, the comparison with the investment preferences of last month are conclusive. As the chart above shows, the percentage of those who see crude oil leading in returns this year is seven points higher than in January, while those targeting cryptocurrency is now two percentage points lower.