On children’s outings in the not-so-distant past, one of the classic songs went “we are going to tell lies tralará…”. The Government’s action combines with singular mastery that happy and mischievous melody with an irrational persistence in error. This week the government proposal to extend the computation period for calculating pensions sent to Brussels, considered a simple working hypothesis by the minister of the branch when its announcement caused an extraordinary stir.
At the same time, the European Commission has shattered the government’s GDP growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022, the unreality of which was clamorous after the brutal downward correction of that indicator in the II Quarter of the year and the mediocre results harvested in the third trimester. And to close the virtuous circle, inflation has risen from 4% in September to 5.4% in October.
The Government lied when it denied having sent the pension measure made public on Wednesday to the European Commission (EC), which explains its refusal, unprecedented in a parliamentary democracy, to show the opposition the Operational Agreement closed with the EC. She did it again by presenting a picture of macroeconomic forecasts untenable for any serious analyst, except for Ms. Calviño and her team of brilliant visionaries.
The alternative explanation to the lie is even worse, because it would show a supine ignorance. In any case, the amazing events of these seven days of November are one more nail in the coffin where the credibility of the social-communist executive rests.
The Government lied when it denied having sent the pension measure made public on Wednesday to the European Commission (EC)
Spain is the only EU State that will not recover this year the level of GDP existing in 2019. The other large European economies, Germany, France and Italy will be above that in this exercise and the national economy, if the gods and the Government do not prevent it, will not reach that goal, as has been repeated over and over again in these pages, until the last quarter of 2023 or the first of 2024.
This constitutes a unprecedented disasterhas always emerged from recessionary cycles with greater vigor than the rest of the European countries, and certifies the government’s inability to lay the foundations for a sustained recovery.
Despite what has been said, the First Vice President of the Government and Minister of Economy maintains against all evidence that “the recovery is underway” and, it seems, she is not willing to modify her growth forecast for 2021 and 2022, which would obviously force to redo some zombie Budgets.
Without a doubt, it would be very annoying and laborious to alter a budget text whose negotiation has been and is so arduous and to be able to satisfy the demands of its partners with numbers whose resemblance to reality is non-existent. But nobody has to worry too much because por bulerías, the head of the Treasury will overcome this unpleasant hurdle with her ease and usual gracejo.
A decade ago in circumstances very different from today, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba coined a condemned phrase to become famous: “Spain deserves a government that does not lie to it”. This moral proclamation is fiercely valid at the moment, but a complement could be added: “Spain needs a government that has minimal competence.”
The Spanish economy is in the hands of irresponsible willing to permanently insult intelligence. With this government we have to sing the Dantesque lasciate ogni speranza. There is nothing to be done and one can only trust, an unlikely hypothesis, in an energetic European action aimed at bringing order to the chaos.
Everything that happened and what will happen was foreseeable and avoidable. Nothing condemned Spain to enter into a dynamic like the current one; nothing, except one thing: the economic policy implemented by the Executive. He has done everything necessary to install the Spanish economy in the crisisas some, few Spanish economists predicted, and has firmly and firmly maintained a path that only leads to a scenario of inflationary stagnation whose overcoming will require a churchillian “blood, sweat and tears”. But let no one be alarmed. Everything will work out because the funds Next Generation will be the balm of Fierabrás to return to the path of solid and, at the same time, gaseous growth.
It is a horror to write and describe how a government destroys the economy of a country and it’s sad to have to. It can only be hoped that Spanish society learns the lesson and whoever succeeds this Government in the direction of national destinies knows, at least, that it should not be done.